Monday, July 6, 2009

FACTBOX - India's 2009/10 budget and the economy

India's finance minister on Monday outlined plans to speed infrastructure development and unveiled increased spending for farmers and the poor in the first budget since the Congress-led government was re-elected convincingly in May.

The government said the additional spending would push the 2009/10 fiscal deficit to 6.8 percent of GDP, much higher than markets had expected, sending local shares sharply lower and pushing up bond yields.

Following are some facts about the budget and key numbers from the 2009/10 federal budget.

SIZE OF ECONOMY (GDP): $1 trillion

POPULATION: 1.15 billion

GROWTH: The government said on Monday economic growth slowed to 6.7 percent in 2008/09 from year-earlier 9.0 percent. It would be the slowest growth in six years.

The budget assumes growth of 8 percent in 2010/11 and of 9 percent in 2010/11.

INDUSTRIAL GROWTH: India's industrial output , which accounts for a quarter of its GDP, grew 2.4 percent in the year to March 2009, compared with 8.5 percent growth the year before.

Output was up 1.4 percent in April.

EXPORTS: India's exports, which form 16 percent of the economy, grew 3.4 percent in the year to March 2009, compared with growth of 23.02 percent in 2007/08.

They fell 29.2 percent in May and fell 33.2 percent in April.

BUDGET ESTIMATES FOR 2009/10:

* Total receipts seen at 10.21 trillion rupees

* Revenue receipts seen at 6.14 trillion rupees

* Capital receipts seen at 4.06 trillion rupees

* Borrowings and other liabilities seen at 4.01 trillion rupees

* Total expenditure seen at 10.21 trillion rupees

* Plan expenditure seen at 3.25 trillion rupees

* Non-plan expenditure seen at 6.96 trillion rupees

* Fiscal deficit seen at 4.01 trillion rupees, or 6.8 percent of GDP

* Revenue deficit seen at 2.83 trillion rupees, or 4.8 percent of GDP

Wednesday, July 1, 2009

India hikes gasoline, diesel prices, leaves cooking fuels untouched

Just five days before the union budget is to be presented, India Wednesday allowed state-run oil firms to increase prices of transport fuels, resulting in gasoline becoming dearer by Rs.4 per litre and diesel by Rs.2 per litre, following successive increase in global crude prices.

Petroleum Minister Murli Deora told reporters at a hurriedly convened press conference here that the new prices take effect from the midnight of Wednesday. He made the announcement soon after a meeting with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

'The prices of kerosene and cooking gas are not being changed,' Deora said, adding the government will continue to incur a subsidy of Rs.15.26 per litre and Rs.92.96 per cylinder on these two fuels, respectively.

He said even in the case of petrol and diesel, oil-marketing companies will continue to incur a loss of Rs.2 per litre and Rs.1.62 on petrol and diesel, respectively, on account of selling these fuels below cost.

According to Petroleum Secretary R.S. Pandey, the state-run oil companies will face an overall subsidy burden of Rs.30,000 crore ($6 billion) during this fiscal if global crude prices remain firm at the current level.

'The under-recoveries (losses) have reached a level where it has become inevitable to revisit the prices,' he said, adding the government will continue to monitor the global prices and take appropriate decisions.

Pandey said the Indian basket of crude oil was ruling at $70.29 per barrel as of Tuesday, against $58.80 on May 20 and around $40 in December last year. But the burden on oil companies will not be more than what it was in the past.

He said that 'to the extent possible, we will resource the under-recoveries from upstream companies (Oil and Natural Gas Corp and Oil India)'.

'But, the upstream companies's burden will also not be more than what has been in the past,' Pandey added.

The government had last decreased the petrol prices in January 2009 and December 2008.

The previous hike in price had taken place in June 2008, when the retail prices were raised by Rs.5 for petrol and Rs.3 for diesel.

The price of cooking gas and kerosene had not been touched during any of these price revisions.

Interestingly, unlike previous instances, there was no cabinet decision made before the price increase was announced this time.

'This is an inter-ministerial issue. It is only on basis on inter-ministerial discussion that this has been decided,' said Pandey.

The move, which just comes just a day ahead of parliament resuming legislative business Thursday, is bound to invoke strong protests by the opposition. The Left parties had already threatened an agitation.